The water war in the Middle East: a sign of a troubling times

In recent weeks, Iran has been the scene of protests in Khuzestan, southern province over drought and water scarcity. “We are thirsty” was the central slogan of the opponents. All over the country, The Iranians have supported their compatriots on social networks and in the streets. They declared their solidarity with the victims of the bad governance. Experts have long been warning about the dangers of the drought and the water crisis. This crisis is the result of a one-dimensional development which did not consider the risks of excessive co-consumption of groundwater for agriculture and industry. We are approaching a troubling time that we can call “the water war”. According to research carried out, many of the Middle East countries will be affected by these phenomena. “I am thirsty” is a sign of a world more troubled than before in which nationalisms will be strengthened. I predict that the water crisis can reinforce the anarchic and conflictual situation in the Middle East for which there is no perfect model of democracy.

In this sense, the situation in Iraq is more worrying. This country encountered serious problems such as drought, forced exodus, … In the coming years, Iraq will have experienced severe environmental tensions. Its consequences for the southern provinces of Iran could be a source of tension between the two countries. But we should not see this problem unilaterally: the problem is not limited to drought and water scarcity, we should add major concerns such as the development of jihadism, extremism, autocracy, and political instabilities. In other words, the water war can exacerbate the problems in a region in which many regional and international issues remain unresolved. The water crisis can change political coalitions and trigger wars that currently cannot be imagined. We cannot analyze the situation of each country without considering its context, but it is foreseeable that the Middle East is not in the path of democracy. The shortage of water can make this region more conservative so that the democratic discourse falls further back. After the events dubbed “The Arab Spring,” optimism for the establishment of democracies was heightened, but the winter of these events is soon upon us. The return of the military to power in Egypt, the civil war in Syria and Libya but also in Yemen have shown that the pro-democrats have a very difficult mission to do. Recent disputes between secularists and Islamists in Tunisia may also jeopardize the only successful model of the Arab Spring.

It is in this regard that we must be pessimistic about the future of the Middle East, which is characterized by tensions and bloody conflicts but also the collapse of powers. The water crisis is one reason why we can raise worrying alarms about the future of this region. In other words, the water war will not start, it has already started, it is not alone, it will accompany all the crises in this region.